Weekly Market Brief: Tight Supply and Shifting Rents Set the Tone for 2026

Market fundamentals remain tight

Australia’s property market entered 2026 with limited stock, high demand, and firm rental conditions. While headline price growth has slowed in some capitals, supply remains constrained and vacancy rates are still hovering near record lows.

The latest National Australia Bank Housing Monitor confirms price growth across capital cities through 2025, with rents staying elevated. These conditions are shaping decisions across all sides of the market — for buyers, sellers, and investors. It’s not just about tracking numbers, it’s about understanding the forces behind them.

Rental market reshaping

Rents are still rising, but the pace and pattern vary. Notably, the traditional gap between house and unit rents is narrowing in cities like Canberra and Melbourne. This is driven by affordability pressures and limited options, with more renters turning to units — and pushing their yields upward.

In Sydney, house rents remain high. But in other cities, unit rents are now seeing sharper growth, creating a more segmented rental market. For landlords and investors, it means strategy matters more than ever.

Canberra: Stable, selective, supply-aware

Canberra continues to track steadily. Dwelling values ended 2025 above where they began, but without the volatility seen in Perth or Brisbane. CoreLogic data shows measured growth in a supply-constrained environment.

Stock remains tight

Listing volumes in Canberra are still below long-term averages. That limited choice is keeping values stable, even as buying conditions fluctuate. It’s a different story to markets where over-supply is putting downward pressure on prices.

Affordability influencing decisions

Affordability is still central in Canberra. While house prices are above regional norms, constrained borrowing capacity and cautious buyer sentiment are keeping growth in check. Buyers are focusing on well-priced homes and areas with long-term value.

What it means for the market

Buyers

You need a clear plan. Look beyond price trends and focus on areas with strong fundamentals and limited stock. A reactive approach won’t cut it.

Sellers

This market rewards smart pricing. Buyers are engaged, but selective. Overpricing leads to slower campaigns, while realistic expectations deliver better engagement and momentum.

Investors

This isn’t a one-size-fits-all market. The rent gap between houses and units is narrowing, which impacts yield decisions. In Canberra, investors should lean into long-term cashflow and growth fundamentals, not just short-term trends.

What to watch this week

• Asking price trends across Canberra suburbs

• Shifts in vacancy rates and gross yields

• New listing activity and auction clearance rates

• Announcements on supply policy or building approvals

Whats our take?

Market noise is everywhere — but clarity matters more. Right now, it’s about understanding how tight supply and localised rental shifts are driving outcomes. Not all markets are moving the same way, and success comes down to strategy, timing and reading the local signals.