Canberra’s Sub-$1M Market Holds Strong as Access Expands — But Will It Be Enough?

October’s expansion of the Home Guarantee Scheme is a clear step forward. By lifting income thresholds, scrapping property price caps, and allowing first-home buyers to enter with just a 5% deposit and no lenders mortgage insurance, policymakers have sent a message: access matters. And with spring activity already heating up, the timing couldn’t be sharper.

But access without alignment is only part of the puzzle. The scheme may open more doors, but it doesn’t lower the cost of what’s behind them. In high-performing cities like Canberra, where even modest homes brush up against the $1 million mark, the real challenge remains affordability — not eligibility. The benefit of a 5% deposit is meaningful, but it won’t solve the serviceability equation on its own.

That said, this policy shift brings undeniable momentum to the sub-$1M market — a price band that has quickly become the battleground for Canberra’s buyers and sellers. Detached homes and upgraded townhouses in well-connected suburbs are seeing a noticeable lift in open home attendance. This isn’t speculative hype. It’s the by-product of pent-up demand, improved lending conditions, and a more inclusive policy platform finally hitting the market.

For sellers, the message is equally clear: meet the market, and the market will meet you. Strong presentation and realistic pricing will outperform overreach every time, especially as buyers grow savvier and data-driven. The gap between asking price and buyer reality is narrowing — and those who adjust quickly will benefit first.

Amid national uncertainty, Canberra’s relative steadiness is worth paying attention to. August dwelling approvals came in at 379 — modest, yes, but enough to keep the territory marginally ahead of its long-term monthly target. It’s a small but significant sign that local planning systems are functioning better than most. That doesn’t mean we’re immune to challenges — build costs, delays, and bureaucracy still weigh heavily — but the ACT’s long-term planning for density, infill, and mixed-tenure supply is showing signs of real resilience.

And it matters. Because consistent supply is the only thing that will prevent the new wave of access from becoming a new wave of pressure. The more first-home buyers that enter the ring, the more urgent it becomes to ensure there are actually homes for them to secure — and that the planning system doesn’t choke the very opportunity it was designed to support.

The Hayman Partners perspective?

We’ll always support measures that promote sustainable access. But we won’t buy into inflated narratives. The Canberra market today is better balanced than most capitals — access is rising, approvals are steady, and buyer competition is healthy without becoming frenzied. That’s a rare combination in 2025.

This isn’t a time for reactive decisions. Whether you’re planning to buy, sell, or reposition, it’s time to get clear on the strategy — because the next few months will favour those who act with purpose, not panic.