Weekly Market Brief: Canberra’s Market is Evolving

Supply, Reform and Policy Are Finally Moving in Sync

Australia’s property market is no longer in limbo. Capital city house prices are rising at the strongest pace seen in nearly four years, and regional centres aren’t far behind. This isn’t just Sydney and Melbourne driving the narrative, renewed growth is spreading. In this cycle, it’s structure, not spectacle, that’s determining value.

For Canberra, that’s welcome news. The ACT market is responding not just to price shifts, but to a rare alignment of demand, reform, and forward-looking planning. This quarter’s data shows clearly: housing value is being underpinned by genuine momentum, not hype. And in the nation’s capital, that momentum is starting to take a very specific shape, one that prioritises density, diversity and long-term liveability.

The key driver? Planning reform. After years of discussion, the ACT Government is advancing the “Missing Middle” initiative, a shift in planning rules designed to unlock more townhouses, duplexes and low-rise apartments in Canberra’s established suburbs. It’s a pragmatic move, but also a necessary one. Detached housing no longer meets the needs of a growing, diversifying population. And with land supply constrained, density is no longer optional; it’s strategic.

The significance of this reform goes beyond just allowing more builds. It reshapes the entire structure of opportunity. Buyers who have traditionally been locked out of detached homes may now see viable, well-located alternatives. Developers with landholdings in affected corridors have a clear tailwind. And sellers who understand the zoning and infrastructure overlays can better articulate long-term value to discerning buyers.

Add to that the national policy shifts, particularly the expanded First Home Guarantee, and Canberra’s market is starting to reconfigure. Suburbs like Molonglo Valley and Throsby are seeing renewed interest. But this isn’t speculative buying. It’s the result of lower rates, improved access, and sharper planning alignment. Demand is chasing infrastructure. And that is always a sign of a maturing market.

So what does this mean for those in the thick of it?

Buyers
It’s time to shift perspective. The detached home is no longer the default benchmark. Medium-density housing, when well-designed and well-located, is fast becoming the smart choice. Focus your attention on suburbs where policy and supply are converging. That’s where future value will compound. And don’t wait for perfect conditions, readiness and clarity still outperform timing.

Sellers and Developers
If your stock sits in a reform zone or near a transport corridor, now is the time to lead with that narrative. Don’t just sell a home, sell the context. Smart buyers are reading planning documents as closely as floorplans. But don’t lose the fundamentals: pricing, presentation and time-to-market are still non-negotiable.

Policymakers and Planners
This is the test of whether planning can stay ahead of pressure. Supply is not just a matter of how many dwellings get built, it’s about building the right types, in the right places, with the right zoning support. The Missing Middle is not a side conversation anymore. It’s core policy. And its success will determine whether Canberra can manage its growth or be managed by it.

Signals to watch this week:

• New quarterly housing value releases

• Final announcements on ACT’s Missing Middle reforms

• Auction clearance rates and suburb-level demand shifts in medium-density corridors

At Hayman Partners, our view remains clear: opportunity sits at the intersection of supply, reform, and infrastructure. This is not a time to chase short-term price gains, it’s a time to align with long-term urban logic. If you’re buying, selling or developing in the ACT, get close to the zones that are changing, because that’s where the next chapter of value will be written.