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As 2025 came to a close, one thing became clear. The Canberra housing market is no longer moving as a single system.
Instead, it has split into two very different markets. Detached houses and units are now responding to separate forces, attracting different buyers, and delivering very different outcomes.
This is not a short-term anomaly. It is a structural shift, and it will shape Canberra property decisions well into 2026.
A two-speed market occurs when different property types behave independently, rather than rising or falling together.
In Canberra, late 2025 showed this clearly:
• Detached homes strengthened, despite higher interest rates
• Units softened, despite record rental demand
The cause was not sentiment alone. It was supply.
The most important change was a sharp reduction in available stock.
By December 2025, total listings were down 15.7 percent year-on-year. Earlier in the year, buyers could choose from more than 3,200 properties. By Q4, that choice narrowed quickly.
Many owners simply chose not to sell. With uncertainty around rates and construction costs, holding became preferable to testing the market. That decision had consequences.
Fewer listings meant:
• Less buyer choice
• More competition for quality homes
• Price resilience, particularly in established suburbs
As a result, the median house price recovered from $1 million mid-year to $1,040,100 by December.
Affordability and land size became key drivers.
Tuggeranong stood out, recording 6.9 percent annual growth. Buyers priced out of inner districts continued to prioritise:
• Freestanding homes
• Family-friendly layouts
• Larger blocks
This pattern reinforces a long-held truth in Canberra. Land remains scarce, and scarcity supports value.
At first glance, the unit market looks contradictory.
• Median unit prices eased to $592,000, down from $610,000 mid-year
• At the same time, unit rents hit a record $580 per week
The explanation is supply.
Canberra’s apartment pipeline remains active, particularly in town centres and transport corridors. While rental demand is strong, buyer demand is more selective. Investors are cautious on capital growth, and owner-occupiers remain price sensitive.
In short:
• Units are delivering income
• Houses are delivering capital growth
That gap widened in late 2025.
Not materially.
A landmark sale in Forrest surpassed $8 million in September, reinforcing a consistent trend. Top-tier homes operate in a different financial environment.
Buyers in this segment are less reliant on borrowing capacity and more focused on:
• Location
• Rarity
• Long-term hold value
Prestige property in Canberra continues to trade on fundamentals, not headlines.
From an investor perspective, late 2025 marked a shift from growth to income.
• House rents rose 2.9 percent to around $700 per week
• Unit rents reached record highs
• Gross yields expanded to around 4.0 percent, outperforming Sydney and Melbourne
For units, the opportunity is yield-driven rather than growth-driven. For houses, long-term value remains underpinned by land scarcity.
The data points to a clear conclusion.
Canberra is no longer a market where “property” can be discussed as a single asset class. Strategy now matters more than timing.
• Detached homes remain structurally supported
• Units require careful selection and realistic growth expectations
• Premium assets continue to attract capital
In 2026, success will come from understanding which part of the market you are in, not simply whether the market is “up” or “down”.
If you want advice grounded in local data and real transaction experience, speak with the Hayman Partners team.
Have a question we haven't quite answered? Use this form and we'll touch base within 24 hours.