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The latest data confirms that Canberra real estate is quietly strengthening while the broader Australian housing market keeps rising at a more measured pace. For owners, buyers and investors across the ACT, the story is not a boom, but a steady, fundamentals driven recovery.
Read on as we unpack the key numbers, what they mean for Canberra homeowners and buyers, and how our team at Hayman Partners is reading the months ahead.
Fresh figures from Cotality, reported by PropertyUpdate, show Canberra’s median dwelling value sitting at about $891,626, up 1.0% in November, 2.2% over the quarter and 4.2% year on year. Houses are driving the gains, rising 1.3% for the month and 5.4% annually, while unit values are almost flat, up just 0.4% over the year.
Importantly, Canberra house prices remain roughly 2.4% below their May 2022 peak. So while values have recovered, we are not yet back at the absolute top. For many local owners, this feels like a market that has regained its footing rather than one racing away.
From our perspective on the ground:
– Quality freestanding homes in established suburbs are attracting strong competition
– Well located townhouses are performing solidly as a middle ground between houses and units
– The apartment market is much more patchy, with over supplied pockets still working through excess stock
This divergence between houses and units is a recurring Canberra theme, and the current data set reinforces it.
At a national level, Cotality’s Home Value Index rose 1% in November, the third consecutive month of 1% gains. That is a strong result, but it is a slight step down from October’s 1.1% rise as the very hottest markets, especially Sydney and Melbourne, begin to cool.
Several forces are at play:
– Interest rates: The Reserve Bank cut rates three times in 2025, which helped revive demand. More recently, hotter than expected inflation has tempered expectations of further cuts and even raised the prospect of a rate hike in 2026.
– Affordability: Nationally, the median home value is now close to eight times annual income, and saving a 20 per cent deposit can take more than a decade in many capitals. This naturally caps borrowing capacity and price momentum.
– Credit policy: From February, APRA will cap the share of high debt to income loans that banks can write, aimed at keeping overall risk in check. That could subtly constrain borrowing at the margin.
Even so, prices keep grinding higher, supported by low listings, population growth and tight rental markets, especially in mid sized capitals.
Looking ahead, a Reuters poll of property analysts now expects Australian home prices to rise about 8% in 2025 and 6.9% in 2026, an upgrade on earlier forecasts. The key reasons are familiar to anyone working in Canberra real estate: not enough new dwellings being built, resilient demand, and strong migration.
For first home buyers, the news is more challenging. Analysts in the same survey highlighted:
– A shortage of entry level homes
– Difficulty saving deposits amid higher rents and cost of living pressures
– Tighter loan serviceability metrics
Government measures such as allowing some buyers to enter the market with a 5 per cent deposit may help individual households, but there is a risk they add demand without fixing the core issue, which is housing supply.
In short, most forecasters expect price growth to continue, albeit at a more sustainable pace, while affordability remains a real pressure point.
For ACT property specifically, the national headlines translate into a few practical observations.
With Canberra dwelling values up 4.2% over the year and houses up 5.4%, this is a supportive environment for vendors, particularly in established suburbs with limited new supply.
However, buyers are more price aware than they were during the peak of the pandemic boom. We are seeing:
– Strong results for homes that are well presented and priced tightly to recent comparable sales
– Slower campaigns for properties that chase yesterday’s peak or carry unresolved maintenance issues
– A clear premium for turnkey or lightly renovated homes, reflecting buyer fatigue with building costs and timelines
For local buyers, the question is seldom only “will prices go up or down”. It is more often about trade offs between:
– Locking in an upgrade now versus waiting and risking further growth in the segment they want
– Staying flexible on suburb, dwelling type or block size to make the numbers work
– Factoring in borrowing capacity if interest rates hold where they are for longer than expected
In that context, the current market actually suits considered buyers who are clear on their criteria and prepared to move decisively when the right property appears.
Investor lending has been picking up across Australia as lower rates and rising rents improve yields, although Canberra remains a tightly regulated tenancy environment with its own nuances.
In the ACT, we are seeing:
– Renewed investor interest in family friendly townhouses and low maintenance homes in growth corridors
– More focus on rental demand, vacancy risk and future maintenance, rather than pure short term capital gain
– Stronger scrutiny of strata plans and levies in the unit market
For our landlord clients, it is a reminder that asset selection and tenant experience are both crucial in a market that is firm but not frothy.
At Hayman Partners, our job is not to call the top or bottom of the cycle. It is to help Canberra owners, buyers and investors make clear, informed decisions in the context of their own plans.
Given the current data, our guiding principles are:
– Treat this as a steady, opportunity rich market, not a speculative boom
– Make decisions based on your time frame, risk profile and life stage, not headlines alone
– For sellers, invest in presentation and pricing strategy, because buyers are informed and have options
– For buyers, be organised on finance and realistic on trade offs, so you can act quickly when the right home appears
As always, this is general commentary, not financial or legal advice. If you are considering a move in 2026, our team is happy to talk through what these trends might mean for your specific situation.
Have a question we haven't quite answered? Use this form and we'll touch base within 24 hours.