Weekly Market Brief: Canberra’s Next Chapter Is About Strategic Alignment

Value, Supply and Smart Infill

Australia’s housing market has hit another milestone, but it’s not just about high prices. With the total residential dwelling value now brushing up against $12 trillion — after a 2.2% quarterly rise — we’re reminded that property remains the bedrock of household wealth. This scale is more than a headline. It shapes sentiment, drives institutional appetite, and reinforces real estate’s centrality in national investment behaviour.

A $12 trillion housing market is resilient not just because of bricks and mortar, but because of what it represents: intergenerational capital, asset stability, and political sensitivity. For buyers and sellers, that context matters. Value isn’t just about numbers — it’s about trust, belief in the asset, and clarity about the thresholds that define opportunity.

In that context, Canberra is positioning itself with rare foresight. The ACT Government’s target to release land for approximately 26,000 new homes by 2030 isn’t rhetoric — it’s a structural commitment. And importantly, it’s not a return to sprawl. The majority of these new dwellings will be medium to high-density, reflecting the changing needs of a growing, urbanised population.

This is how a city matures: by scaling density in line with transport, by aligning release zones with infrastructure, and by prioritising supply before scarcity hits breaking point. It also sends a signal to developers and institutional players: Canberra isn’t just talking about solving supply — it’s building toward it.

A tangible proof point? The Woden Village redevelopment. This mixed-use project, now approved, will deliver around 200 apartments — including affordable housing — right next to a future light rail and bus interchange. This is textbook transit-oriented development. Supply, infrastructure, and community value all locked into one footprint.

The significance of these moves cannot be overstated. As other jurisdictions wrestle with bottlenecks and bureaucracy, Canberra is showing how to deliver density without friction. Infill done well isn’t just functional — it’s desirable. It gives neighbourhoods a second life, draws in both investors and owner-occupiers, and creates walkable, connected communities.

So what does this all mean, in real terms?

For buyers:
This is the moment to stop thinking in binaries. Detached versus unit is not the question. The smarter play is proximity to supply corridors, access to transit, and medium-density formats that offer lifestyle without the price peak. Pre-approval remains critical, but so does flexibility — and an eye for value outside the default categories.

For sellers and developers:
If you’re sitting on stock aligned with land release zones or infrastructure upgrades, momentum is on your side. But that advantage is only realised through precision — strong presentation, well-timed campaigns, and pricing that matches buyer psychology, not seller aspiration. For projects, the blend of density, design and community use is what will cut through.

For policymakers:
The narrative has shifted. Talking about supply isn’t enough — enabling it through pre-zoning, transit adjacency, and planning consistency is where the real work begins. Mixed tenure and affordability elements must be woven in early, not retrofitted later. Otherwise, we risk replicating the same exclusion cycles we claim to be solving.

What we’re watching next:

• New ABS dwelling value updates

• Development approvals and land release timelines in the ACT

• Buyer activity in newly designated corridors

At Hayman Partners, our view is consistent: real value emerges when land release, infrastructure and livability align. Whether you’re entering the market, repositioning, or expanding your portfolio — this isn’t a time to chase headlines. It’s a time to invest where the city is growing, not just where it’s already priced in.