Weekly Market Brief: Canberra’s Resilience, Rising Access, and the Rise of Private Capital

With the 1 October update to the Home Guarantee, the federal government has taken a meaningful step toward reshaping access in Australia’s property market. By removing property price caps and raising income thresholds, the scheme now allows more buyers to enter with a 5% deposit and no lenders mortgage insurance. It’s not a panacea — but it is a structural shift that repositions entry-level segments as a new focal point in the spring cycle.

Yet access alone doesn’t guarantee outcomes. The real test will be whether this surge in buyer eligibility is met with enough appropriate supply — and whether those who do buy can sustainably hold the asset in a market that remains expensive and competitive.

At the same time, a quiet revolution is unfolding in how development is funded. Australia now leads the Asia-Pacific region in private real estate credit, with over 40% of all non-bank lending activity happening onshore. This shift isn’t just technical — it’s strategic. As traditional lenders grow cautious, developers are turning to private capital to fill the gaps, especially for niche, mid-density, or mixed-tenure projects that don’t always fit a major bank’s lending profile.

Private credit brings speed and flexibility. It’s a funding model that could help deliver missing middle housing faster — but it comes with caveats. Risk tolerance and underwriting discipline must keep pace with capital inflows. Without them, speed turns into exposure.

Meanwhile in Canberra, the story is one of controlled rise. Dwelling values rose 0.7% in September, with houses again leading the charge while unit prices held steady. The city’s median now sits just below $886,000. Inventory remains tight, but buyer activity has clearly firmed — driven by greater access, clearer policy settings, and a backdrop of interest rate stability.

What’s striking in the local picture isn’t just the data, but the behaviour shift. More first-home buyers are engaging buyer’s agents — an indicator of rising complexity and competition, but also a warning. Not all buyer advocacy is created equal. Trust, ethics and proven results matter more than ever as the sector expands rapidly.

Detached homes under $1 million remain the hottest ticket in town. In this tightly banded segment, competition is fierce, especially in well-located, established suburbs. The divergence between house and unit markets continues — a two-speed trend that presents both opportunity and risk depending on how closely stakeholders align to demand.

Where do these threads converge?

Buyers

Secure pre-approval and move with intent. Seek representation you can trust — not just a slick pitch. Target areas with real growth logic: proximity to transport, zoning changes, or infrastructure investment.

Sellers & Developers

Opportunity lies in the middle — townhouses, duplexes, and small-scale builds where demand is rising. Smart capital structures and clear messaging to market will outperform generic campaigns.

Policymakers & Planners

Access without streamlined supply is short-sighted. The ACT must continue reducing approval friction, enabling urban infill, and maintaining planning consistency. Regulation around buyer representation is also overdue for scrutiny as the landscape shifts.

What we’re watching next:

– ACT and national building approval volumes

– Major private credit-backed development announcements

– Rezoning activity in high-demand Canberra suburbs

– Government commentary on scheme tweaks or buyer safeguards

At Hayman Partners, we believe markets perform best when access, capital and execution align — not in isolation, but in sync. The opportunity is real, but it’s not automatic. We’re working with clients to help them act confidently in a market that’s changing shape, not direction.