Weekly Market Brief: Canberra’s New Phase

As National Growth Builds, Canberra Edges Into a New Phase

Australia’s housing market continues its slow, deliberate march forward. National dwelling values rose 2.2% over the September quarter, pushing the country’s total residential stock value to nearly $12 trillion. That’s not just a number, it’s a measure of how central property remains to household wealth, policy debate, and capital markets alike.

But what’s notable is the shape of the growth. This isn’t the fevered boom of past years. It’s steadier, more strategic. And that’s a different kind of challenge, one that favours informed action over impulse.

The demand is real, and it’s being sustained in spite of familiar headwinds: tight credit, cost-of-living pressures, and ongoing supply constraints. What we’re seeing isn’t speculative fluff. It’s underlying confidence, a sign that many Australians still view real estate as a primary path to security and future upside.

At the same time, national sentiment is growing increasingly focused on what fuels this demand: migration. A new poll shows that 71% of Australians support a pause on migration until housing and infrastructure catch up. That figure doesn’t reflect hostility, it reflects frustration. People recognise the imbalance. Migration drives growth, but when housing delivery lags years behind population shifts, pressure mounts at every point in the chain: rents, prices, and infrastructure strain.

For cities like Canberra, the migration conversation isn’t theoretical. It’s immediate. The local market is already defined by the interplay between steady population growth and finite, often delayed, dwelling supply. Where that equation balances, opportunity follows. Where it doesn’t, affordability erodes.

And right now, there are signs of movement. After a long stretch of stock scarcity, Canberra’s spring listing numbers have spiked. It’s a noticeable shift, and one that changes the calculus for both buyers and sellers.

More stock means more choice. That’s welcome news for buyers who’ve spent the last 18 months navigating limited options and rising prices. It may also ease upward pricing pressure slightly, if volumes hold. But it also sharpens competition among sellers. In a more crowded market, presentation, pricing and positioning matter more. The advantage no longer goes to simply being ‘on the market’, it goes to those who bring a clear, compelling offer to buyers who now have options.

Developers and investors should be watching closely. Is this surge a seasonal bump or the start of a new cycle of active listings? Either way, the balance between volume and absorption will be key. Projects that align with infrastructure, deliver true density or mixed-tenure outcomes, and move cleanly through approvals will remain in favour. Those that lag or misread demand risk falling flat.

What this means for each player in the market:

Buyers
With momentum building nationally and listings up in Canberra, this is a window to act with clarity. Be ready, but be choosy. Consider how migration and infrastructure will reshape suburbs — those dynamics will drive value in the next phase more than just postcode alone.

Sellers and Developers
This isn’t the time to coast. With more stock on the market, buyers are sharpening expectations. Stand-out campaigns, honest pricing, and value-led presentation are now non-negotiable. Developers should double down on sites aligned to growth corridors and infrastructure spend.

Policy and Planning Stakeholders
The migration-housing tension is no longer an abstract. Public sentiment is clear: match intake with infrastructure or risk backlash. In Canberra, light rail, zoning reform and pre-approved land corridors will dictate which areas succeed. Nationally, momentum can’t be sustained unless structural supply issues are addressed.

What to watch:

• Regional vs capital growth trends, is pressure spreading or consolidating?

• ACT approvals and listing rates in key growth corridors

• Migration policy commentary, and whether supply is responding at the pace required

• Rezoning and land release follow-through, announcements are one thing, delivery is another

At Hayman Partners, our view remains consistent: strategy always beats timing. Data is pointing to motion — not explosion — and that gives room for considered, confident decisions. As Canberra adjusts to new listing volumes and national forces ripple through, we’re here to help our clients move with insight, not noise.