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The Reserve Bank has just delivered its final interest rate decision for 2025, holding the cash rate at 3.60 per cent.
For the Australian housing market and for ACT property in particular, that means no immediate repayment shock, no extra relief, and a continued focus on the fundamentals that have driven this year’s gains.
In this weeks Market Brief, we look at:
– What the RBA’s decision actually means for the Australian housing market
– How Canberra real estate is behaving on the ground
– Why rental vacancy rates are back in the spotlight
– What all of this could mean for your decisions in 2026
This is general market commentary only, not financial or legal advice.
At its 9 December meeting, the RBA Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 3.60 per cent.
In its statement, the Bank noted that:
– Inflation has fallen sharply from its 2022 peak, but has picked up again recently
– Some of that increase looks temporary, and the newer monthly CPI series is still settling in
– Economic activity and housing prices are recovering, supported by earlier rate cuts and easier financial conditions
– Labour markets have cooled a little, but remain relatively tight
In short, the Board sees risks to inflation tilting to the upside and wants more data before moving again.
ABC and mortgage industry coverage underline a few practical points for households:
– This is the third consecutive hold, after a series of cuts earlier in the year, leaving the cash rate at 3.60 per cent into early 2026
– It is the final decision for 2025, with the next meeting not until February, so mortgage rates should be broadly stable over summer
– Economists are split on what comes next, with some pricing in a modest chance of a hike later in 2026 and others still seeing room for another cut if growth slows again
For the Australian housing market, this looks like a classic “watchful pause”. The rate is restrictive enough to take heat out of the broader economy, but not so tight that it has derailed housing demand, especially in undersupplied capitals.
While rate speculation grabs headlines, the latest Australian housing data tells a consistent story.
PropertyUpdate’s weekly market wrap, drawing on Cotality and SQM Research, shows that:
– Australian capital city dwelling values rose 0.8 per cent over the past month
– Values are now 7.3 per cent higher than a year ago
– The preliminary capital city auction clearance rate eased to around 63.5 per cent, the lowest since this time last year, as volumes step down into Christmas
– National rental vacancy rates remain near 1.5 per cent, keeping upward pressure on rents, which are up about 5 per cent over the past 12 months
This is not a boom. It is a steady, broad based recovery built on:
– Structural undersupply of quality homes
– Strong population growth
– Tight rental markets pushing some tenants into ownership
With the cash rate now on hold, the big swing factor is less about mortgage pricing and more about how quickly supply can catch up and how households handle higher living costs.
Against that national backdrop, the Canberra market is showing exactly the sort of steady firmness we see in the office each week.
Domain’s latest Allhomes coverage of “Canberra auctions: Housing market heats up for summer” highlights:
– 126 auctions scheduled last weekend
– 70 sales, 9 withdrawals and 31 passed in
– A clearance rate of 61 per cent, well above the 41 per cent recorded at the same time last year
On the ground, that is translating into:
– Competitive bidding for well presented family homes in suburbs like Gowrie, Weetangera and Chapman
– Solid but price sensitive interest in character homes and renovators, especially where land size and location do the heavy lifting
– More selective demand in pockets of the unit market, where supply is deeper and buyers are cautious about future levies and maintenance
At the same time, SQM and Cotality data summarised by PropertyUpdate show Canberra’s asking prices continuing to drift higher:
– House asking prices around $1.29 million, up 0.8 per cent for the month and 6.6 per cent over the year
– Units around $589,000, flat month to month and softer over the year
– Combined dwellings up 0.8 per cent for the month and 4.1 per cent year on year
That gap between houses and units is a familiar Canberra pattern. In a market where the cash rate is stable but supply is constrained, it is no surprise that land rich, family friendly homes continue to command a premium.
The third important thread this week is a new piece of research from AHURI on rental vacancy rates.
The report, “Cracking the rental vacancy rate”, is the first deep dive into how private rental vacancy rates are built and used in Australia. Some key findings:
– Across 13 countries, most vacancy data is produced by governments and covers all unoccupied dwellings
– Australia is an outlier, relying heavily on private providers that focus on vacant rentals only, using opaque methodologies
– A comparison of two providers showed average quarterly vacancy rates for smaller capitals can differ by up to 1.8 percentage points
– The widely quoted idea that a 3 per cent vacancy rate equals a healthy rental market is not supported by the evidence for most cities
– Only in Melbourne and Perth does that 3 per cent benchmark line up reasonably well with long term balance
The researchers argue we need:
– Jurisdiction specific benchmarks instead of a single national “magic number”
– More attention on changes in vacancy over time and the interaction with rent growth and displacement
– Better, more accessible public data so that tenants, advocates and smaller investors are not shut out of the conversation
For Canberra landlords and tenants, the takeaway is simple. Vacancy is still low and rents are still rising, but that headline figure needs to be read alongside rent growth, tenant turnover and local conditions, not treated as a one line verdict.
Putting the pieces together for Canberra real estate:
1. Rate stability gives planning clarity
A cash rate on hold at 3.60 per cent through summer allows households to budget with more confidence. It does not cut repayments, but it avoids another squeeze at a time when costs are already elevated.
2. Demand is being driven by life, not speculation
Auction results and asking price data suggest a market driven by life decisions, not quick wins. Families upsizing or downsizing, long term investors and first home buyers with support schemes in play are shaping activity more than short term traders.
3. Quality and pricing strategy matter more than ever
With clearance rates in the 55 to 60 per cent range, the difference between a strong sale and a quiet campaign often comes down to presentation, realistic pricing and a clear strategy for finding the right buyer pool.
4. Investors need to read beyond vacancy headlines
In a world where vacancy measures are under fresh scrutiny, the smarter play is to focus on tenant demand, local rents, maintenance profile and the overall ACT tenancy framework, rather than chasing a single number.
At Hayman Partners, our focus is less on predicting the next RBA move and more on helping clients make clear, evidence based decisions in their own time frames.
If you are considering a sale, purchase or portfolio review in 2026, the combination of rate stability, tight but rational buyer demand, and moderate price growth in Canberra can be a constructive environment, as long as the strategy is tailored to you.
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