Weekly Market Brief: Supply, Demand and Entry Points in the ACT & Australian Housing Market

Australia’s housing market has entered spring with a pulse. National home prices rose 1.1% in October, bringing the median to $872,538. Listings are up, buyers are re-engaging, and lenders are loosening terms, in some cases offering 10% deposits with no lenders mortgage insurance. It all feels like a revival. But beneath the activity, key structural dynamics remain unresolved, especially in the ACT.

This is no ordinary spring bounce. It’s happening in a landscape where price pressures never truly retreated, where interest rates have plateaued but not softened meaningfully, and where supply pipelines are still fragile. So while entry barriers might be falling on paper, the pathway to actual value creation is narrow and uneven.

In the ACT, detached houses are steadily increasing in value. October brought another modest lift in prices, adding to a year of incremental gains. But the unit and townhouse market is telling a different story, sluggish growth, softer demand, and growing divergence between high-quality stock and everything else. This bifurcation matters. It speaks to buyer selectivity, quality concerns, and uncertainty around future urban form.

Worse, the structural supply response may be slipping off track. The ACT’s long-awaited zoning reforms, which promised to deliver a new era of medium-density stock in established areas, are now facing delays due to a formal inquiry. That has serious implications. Without policy certainty, developers hold. Without supply clarity, buyers hesitate. And the housing gap — particularly in the middle tiers — widens.

What makes this landscape more complex is that buyer access is technically improving. New loan products are easing deposit constraints. But lower upfront cost is not the same as affordability, and it’s certainly not a guarantee of future value. Buyers who conflate easier entry with stronger long-term upside risk overpaying in markets where supply is about to catch up or sentiment has already priced in future growth.

So what should stakeholders take from this?

Buyers
Don’t confuse access with advantage. A lower deposit may get you in the door, but the real question is: are you buying smart? In the ACT, established houses in undersupplied suburbs still offer headroom, particularly where zoning delays will limit competition. But steer clear of markets that have already priced in future supply before it’s delivered.

Sellers & Developers
If you’re holding detached housing in a suburb without large-scale new supply, you’re in a strong position, scarcity remains a powerful force. But for units and townhouses, the strategy must shift. With demand selective and growth lagging, presentation, price-point, and product quality are under scrutiny. Developers should be laser-focused on planning approvals — timing risk has never mattered more.

Policy Makers & Planners
Housing strategy is meaningless without execution. Delaying reform at a moment when medium-density supply is both politically and economically urgent sends the wrong signal to market. The ACT can’t afford to stall — not when demand is rising and affordability remains under pressure. It’s time to move beyond frameworks and start delivering volume and choice at scale.

What to watch next:

• Updated quarterly stock levels in the ACT and across capitals

• RBA decisions and whether lender competition sharpens further

• Outcomes from the ACT zoning reform inquiry — pace of approvals will set the tone

• Listing volumes heading into summer — whether the current supply lift becomes structural or fades

At Hayman Partners, we remain clear-eyed about what drives success in this cycle. It’s not headline growth. It’s not loan gimmicks. It’s alignment, between demand, policy and delivery. Those who navigate that intersection with discipline, win.